First Trade

Learn how to place your first bet on Kairos prediction markets.

Prerequisites

Before placing your first trade:

• ✅ Wallet connected to Kairos

• ✅ SOL for transaction fees (0.01 SOL minimum)

• ✅ USDC for trading (any amount)

Step-by-Step Guide

Step 1: Browse Markets

1. Go to kairosxai.com

2. Browse through available markets on the homepage

3. Use filters to find markets:

   • All - View all markets

   • Politics - Election and governance predictions

   • Crypto - Cryptocurrency price predictions

   • Sports - Sports event outcomes

   • Business - Company and market predictions

   • Technology - Tech trends and launches

   • Entertainment - Movies, music, awards

   • Science - Research and discoveries

Step 2: Select a Market

Click on any market card to view details:

• Market description

• Current prices for Yes/No

• Trading volume

• End date

• Order book

• Trade history

• Price chart

• Community chat

Step 3: Analyze the Market

Before trading, review:

Market Information:

• What is the question?

• When does it resolve?

• What are the resolution criteria?

Current Prices:

• Yes price indicates probability market assigns

• No price = 1 - Yes price

• Lower price = higher potential profit

AI Analysis (if available):

• Click "AI Analysis" button

• Review GPT-5 generated insights

• Check confidence scores

• Consider AI reasoning

Step 4: Decide Your Position

Choose your position:

Buy Yes:

• You believe the outcome will happen

• You profit if the market resolves to "Yes"

• You lose your bet if it resolves to "No"

Buy No:

• You believe the outcome won't happen

• You profit if the market resolves to "No"

• You lose your bet if it resolves to "Yes"

Step 5: Place Your Bet

1. Select Side:

   • Click "Buy Yes" or "Buy No" button

   • Button will highlight in green (Yes) or red (No)

2. Enter Amount:

   • Type the number of shares you want

   • Or enter the USDC amount you want to spend

   • System calculates automatically

3. Review Details:

   • Price per share

   • Estimated cost (shares × price)

   • Potential payout (if correct)

   • Potential profit (payout - cost)

4. Confirm Transaction:

   • Click "Buy Yes Shares" or "Buy No Shares"

   • Your wallet will prompt for approval

   • Review transaction details

   • Confirm in wallet

5. Wait for Confirmation:

   • Transaction processes on Solana (~400ms)

   • Success notification appears

   • Your position is now active

Step 6: Track Your Position

After placing your bet:

1. View in Portfolio:

   • Click "Portfolio" in navbar

   • See all your active positions

   • Track profit/loss in real-time

2. Monitor Market:

   • Return to market page

   • Watch price movements

   • Read community chat

   • Check AI updates

3. Sell Early (Optional):

   • You can sell your position before resolution

   • Lock in profits or cut losses

   • Price depends on current market

Example Trade

Let's walk through an example:

Market: "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by end of 2024?"

Current Prices:

• Yes: $0.65 (65% probability)

• No: $0.35 (35% probability)

Your Analysis:

• You believe Bitcoin will reach $100k

• AI analysis shows 70% confidence

• Strong bullish sentiment in chat

Your Trade:

1. Click "Buy Yes"

2. Enter 100 shares

3. Cost: 100 × $0.65 = $65 USDC

4. Potential payout: 100 × $1.00 = $100 USDC

5. Potential profit: $100 - $65 = $35 USDC (+53.8%)

6. Approve transaction

If Correct:

• Market resolves to "Yes"

• You receive $100 USDC

• Net profit: $35 USDC

If Wrong:

• Market resolves to "No"

• You lose your $65 USDC bet

• Net loss: -$65 USDC

Trading Tips for Beginners

Start Small

• Place small bets first ($5-20)

• Learn how the platform works

• Build confidence gradually

Do Your Research

• Read market descriptions carefully

• Check AI analysis

• Review price history

• Read community chat

Understand Probabilities

• Price = Implied probability

• $0.75 Yes = 75% chance

• Lower price = Higher risk/reward

Diversify

• Don't put all funds in one market

• Spread bets across multiple markets

• Balance high and low confidence trades

Monitor Deadlines

• Check market end dates

• Some markets resolve quickly

• Others take weeks or months

Use Stop Losses

• Consider selling if price moves against you

• Lock in profits when ahead

• Don't hold losing positions too long

Common Mistakes to Avoid

❌ Not Reading Market Terms:

• Always understand resolution criteria

• Know when market closes

• Check what happens in edge cases

❌ Overtrading:

• Don't chase every market

• Quality over quantity

• Take time to analyze

❌ Ignoring Fees:

• Kairos charges 0.5% platform fee

• Solana gas fees are minimal

• Factor fees into profit calculations

❌ Emotional Trading:

• Don't bet on your favorite team/candidate

• Stay objective

• Follow data, not feelings

❌ Over-leveraging:

• Don't bet more than you can afford to lose

• Keep emergency SOL for gas

• Start with small amounts

Understanding Trade Execution

Immediate Execution

Kairos uses an Automated Market Maker (AMM):

• Trades execute immediately

• No need to wait for counterparty

• Price adjusts based on liquidity

• Larger trades may have slippage

Transaction Fees

Total cost breakdown:

Base Cost:     100 shares × $0.65 = $65.00
Platform Fee:  $65.00 × 0.5% = $0.325
Gas Fee:       ~$0.001 SOL
Total:         ~$65.33

Failed Transactions

If your transaction fails:

1. Insufficient Funds:

   • Check USDC balance

   • Ensure enough SOL for gas

2. Slippage:

   • Market price moved

   • Try again or adjust amount

3. Market Closed:

   • Trading ended

   • Choose different market

4. Wallet Rejected:

   • You declined in wallet

   • Try transaction again

After Your First Trade

What's Next?

1. Monitor Your Position:

   • Check portfolio daily

   • Watch market movements

   • Set price alerts (coming soon)

2. Learn More:

   • Read trading strategies guide

   • Study market analysis

   • Join community discussions

3. Explore Features:

   • Try AI predictions

   • Use market chat

   • Analyze with charts

4. Scale Up:

   • Increase bet sizes gradually

   • Try different market types

   • Develop your strategy

Need Help?

If you have questions:

• 💬 Chat with community on Telegram

• 📧 Email [email protected]

• 📖 Read more guides in docs

• 🐛 Report bugs via admin panel

Next Steps