Prediction Markets

Discover and trade on 500+ prediction markets across multiple categories.

Overview

Kairos offers a diverse range of prediction markets covering:

• 🏛️ Politics - Elections, policies, government decisions

• 💰 Crypto - Price predictions, launches, regulations

• ⚽ Sports - Game outcomes, championships, records

• 💼 Business - Earnings, products, stock prices

• 💻 Technology - Releases, trends, innovations

• 🎬 Entertainment - Awards, box office, charts

• 🔬 Science - Discoveries, space, health

Market Features

Real-time Pricing

• Prices update instantly with each trade

• Reflects current market sentiment

• Based on Automated Market Maker (AMM)

Historical Data

• 30-day price charts

• Volume history

• Trade activity logs

• Pattern analysis

Community Features

• Live market chat

• See who's online

• Discuss predictions

• Share analysis

AI Integration

• GPT-5 market analysis

• Confidence scores

• Risk assessment

• Reasoning explanation

Market Discovery

Homepage Browse

Filter markets by:

1. Category

   • Select from 7 main categories

   • "All" shows everything

   • Icon-based navigation

2. Search

   • Keyword search

   • Title and description

   • Case-insensitive

3. Sorting

   • Volume (high to low)

   • End date (soonest first)

   • Recently created

   • Trending markets

Market Cards

Each card displays:

Header:

• Category badge

• Market title

• End date

Pricing:

• Yes/No prices

• 24h price change

• Current probability

Quick Stats:

• Total volume

• Number of trades

• Active participants

Quick Actions:

• Buy Yes button

• Buy No button

• View details link

Market Detail Page

Main Information

Market Header:

Title: "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by end of 2024?"
Category: Crypto
End Date: Dec 31, 2024 11:59 PM UTC
Volume: $125,430
Liquidity: $45,230

Description:

• Full market question

• Resolution criteria

• Information sources

• Edge case handling

Trading Interface

Left Panel: Market Data

1. Price Chart

   • Historical price movements

   • Time range selector (1D, 7D, 30D, All)

   • Yes/No lines

   • Volume overlay

2. Order Book

   • Best bid/ask prices

   • Depth visualization

   • Spread indicator

3. Trade History

   • Recent trades

   • Price and quantity

   • Buy/sell indicator

   • Time stamps

Right Panel: Trading

1. Position Selector

   • Buy Yes / Buy No toggle

   • Highlighted selection

   • Clear visual feedback

2. Amount Input

   • Number of shares

   • Automatic calculations

   • Balance check

3. Trade Summary

   • Price per share

   • Estimated cost

   • Potential payout

   • Potential profit

   • Platform fee

4. Execute Button

   • "Buy Yes Shares" or "Buy No Shares"

   • Requires wallet connection

   • One-click execution

Additional Features

AI Analysis Tab:

• GPT-5 generated insights

• Sentiment analysis (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral)

• Confidence percentage

• Key factors

• Risk assessment

Market Chat:

• Real-time discussion

• See online users

• Share thoughts

• No spam/abuse

Related Markets:

• Similar predictions

• Same category

• Correlated outcomes

Trading Mechanics

Automated Market Maker

Kairos uses an AMM for instant liquidity:

Benefits:

• No waiting for counterparty

• Always liquid

• Fair pricing

• Instant execution

How it Works:

1. You place order
2. AMM calculates price
3. Updates pool balances
4. Adjusts future prices
5. Trade confirmed

Price Impact

Large orders affect price:

Small Order (100 shares):

• Minimal price impact

• ~0.1% slippage

• Executes at displayed price

Large Order (10,000 shares):

• Noticeable price impact

• ~2-5% slippage

• Price moves with order

Tip: Split large orders into smaller batches

Liquidity Pools

Each market has:

Yes Pool:

• USDC backing Yes shares

• Adjusts with trades

• Determines Yes price

No Pool:

• USDC backing No shares

• Adjusts with trades

• Determines No price

Total Liquidity:

• Sum of both pools

• Higher = better trading

• Displayed on market page

Market Creation

Market creation is currently admin-only. Public market creation coming soon!

Requirements (Future)

When public creation launches:

1. Question Quality

   • Clear and unambiguous

   • Objective resolution

   • Appropriate timeframe

2. Resolution Source

   • Reliable authority

   • Publicly accessible

   • Verifiable outcome

3. Initial Liquidity

   • Minimum USDC deposit

   • Sets starting prices

   • Enables trading

4. Market Parameters

   • End date

   • Category

   • Resolution criteria

   • Edge case handling

Best Practices

For Traders

✅ Do:

• Read full market description

• Check resolution criteria

• Verify end date

• Review AI analysis

• Check liquidity

• Start with small positions

❌ Don't:

• Trade on unclear markets

• Ignore resolution sources

• Bet more than you can lose

• Chase losing positions

• Ignore market signals

Market Selection

High Quality Markets:

• Clear questions

• Reliable sources

• Good liquidity

• Active community

• AI analysis available

Avoid:

• Ambiguous questions

• Low volume

• Unclear resolution

• Suspicious activity

• Too good to be true

Market Statistics

Platform-Wide

Total Markets:     500+
Active Markets:    350+
Resolved Markets:  150+
Total Volume:      $5,000,000+
Active Traders:    10,000+

By Category

Category	Markets	Avg Volume
Politics	120	$15,000
Crypto	95	$25,000
Sports	110	$12,000
Business	75	$18,000
Technology	50	$8,000
Entertainment	40	$6,000
Science	10	$3,000

Top Markets

Most traded markets:

1. Bitcoin $100k by 2024

2. US Election 2024

3. SpaceX Mars Landing

4. Apple $3T Market Cap

5. Next Fed Rate Decision

Next Steps